AGP Executive Report

Spain Growth Update: The Spanish government is set to lift its 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.4 points to 2.6% under a new macro framework for the 2027 Budget package, aiming for expansion above 2% through 2029. Eurozone Mood: The European Commission says eurozone economic sentiment rose in June, with Spain up 0.7 points, though labour expectations stayed under pressure. Youth & Housing Pressure: PwC Foundation’s Synthetic Youth Indicator flags worsening conditions for Spanish youth versus 1995, with housing the biggest drag. Labour Rights Clash: CCOO plans to take Mutua Universal’s withdrawal of collective social benefits to Spain’s Supreme Court and the EU court after a National Court rejection. Crypto/Regulation: Binance is reported to be cutting off EU services after missing MiCA licensing deadlines, as Coinbase pushes ahead with a Luxembourg MiCA hub. Aviation Finance: The EIB approved a record €3bn financing package for Airbus R&D across France, Germany and Spain. Energy & Power: Iberdrola inaugurated Italy’s 243MW Fenix PV plant, backed by EIB finance. Security/Crime: Spain’s Guardia Civil helped dismantle an airport duty-free theft ring feeding black-market shipments to the UK, with 11 arrests.

Space & Defense Finance: Spain-backed FOSSA Systems raised about $10.5m to expand its sovereign satellite connectivity push, with support linked to Spain’s SETT and a total funding tally nearing €20m, as Europe ramps up “sovereign” space capabilities. Crypto Regulation Watch: Binance reported $400m+ in weekly net outflows as the MiCA deadline nears, while other reports point to EU license moves and shifting compliance routes for crypto firms. Banking/Markets Angle: Spain’s stock market ownership is increasingly in the hands of foreign funds, with coverage highlighting who effectively controls the Ibex 35. Energy & Policy: A Spanish gas hub chief urged the EU to postpone a Russian LNG ban, feeding into the wider debate on energy security and prices. Real Estate & Cost of Living: Spain’s heatwave is pushing electricity prices higher just as bills were already climbing, adding pressure to household budgets. Sports-Token Crossover: PSG’s transfer hunt for a versatile defender is framed alongside the ongoing role of its $PSG fan token, underscoring how clubs keep blending crypto and fan engagement. Humanitarian/Spain Consular: Spain’s Foreign Ministry says 17 Spaniards have died and 150 are missing after Venezuela’s earthquakes, with rescue teams focused on 12 people still trapped.

Tax Policy: Spain has removed Gibraltar from its non-cooperative tax blacklist after 35 years, citing a bilateral tax cooperation deal and OECD compliance, including Pillar Two participation. Parliament & Governance: Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s secretary and PSOE Navarra’s former “number two” Ramón Alzórriz are set to be summoned to Senate investigative committees tied to the “Koldo case” and SEPI. Banking & Markets: A study on Spanish urban tourism shows Madrid is driving visitor scale while Barcelona is leaning on higher-spend stays, with implications for local property and hospitality demand. Real Estate & Wealth Flows: Non-resident foreigners accounted for 18.8% of home purchases in Spain in 2025 (52,781 homes), with Dutch buyers leading and demand concentrated along the coasts. Crypto & Regulation: Binance is reported to be locked out of Europe on July 1 as MiCA deadlines bite, while other firms race for MiCA licensing routes. Public Safety & Crime: Police dismantled an international Costa del Sol network producing counterfeit UK driving licences, seizing hundreds of forged documents and a clandestine printing lab. Energy & Cost of Living: Spain’s heatwave is pushing electricity prices higher, adding pressure to already-rising bills. Humanitarian Response: After Venezuela’s double earthquake, Spain-based collection and donation efforts are ramping up as the death toll climbs and thousands remain missing.

Venezuela Earthquake Response: Spain’s Military Emergencies Unit is among the foreign teams rushing to help after twin quakes, as the death toll climbs above 1,400 and Spain reports six dead with 133 missing and 133 missing still unaccounted for. Crypto & Scams: Cape Verde’s World Cup run is drawing scammers—unauthorized “official” tokens are already trading on Solana despite no official blockchain partnerships, a reminder to treat hype with caution. EU Crypto Regulation: Binance is again in the spotlight as EU MiCA deadlines tighten, with reports of EU service restrictions and licensing pressure affecting crypto access for traders. Spain Defense Industry: Spain plans 15 defense programs this year with Indra, Navantia and Airbus at the center, aiming to sustain 2% of GDP spending and keep contracts flowing. Real Economy/Property: Luxury buyers continue to look to Spain as a haven, while heatwave pressure is also pushing up electricity prices and household bills.

World Cup Shockwave: Cape Verde became the smallest nation to reach the World Cup knockout rounds after a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia, setting up a round-of-32 clash with Argentina and Messi. Injury Watch (Man United): Manuel Ugarte’s stretchered knee injury after Uruguay’s 1-0 loss to Spain could derail Manchester United’s midfield plans, with scans pending. Venezuela Aid (Spain): Spain updated earthquake figures: 133 Spaniards still missing, 14 located under rubble, and five deaths confirmed, as rescue teams and initial aid are deployed. Crypto Regulation (MiCA): Binance will restrict services in the EU from July 1 after missing the MiCA licensing deadline, following a withdrawn application in Greece. Tax Policy (Spain): Spain removed Gibraltar from its non-cooperative tax blacklist, alongside other territories, citing updated OECD/EU transparency standards. Security (Tenerife): Guardia Civil dismantled the Preda clan, arresting 11 over airport duty-free thefts across Europe including Tenerife South, with alleged money laundering and smuggling. Heat Risk (Europe): AFP forecasts up to 193m people in Europe facing temperatures above 35C on Saturday, with Spain among record-hit countries.

Crypto Regulation in Spain: Iqana says it has secured MiCA authorization for discretionary management of crypto-asset portfolios, becoming the only Spanish firm with that specific permit as the July 1 transitional deadline nears. EU Compliance Pressure: Binance warns EU users it will cut services after missing the MiCA license deadline, with reports of withdrawal instructions reaching customers in Spain and other countries. Spain–Mexico Diplomacy: King Felipe VI met Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico City, signaling a reset after years of diplomatic tension. Banking/Markets Watch: The Bank of Spain is forecast to return to profits in 2026 after avoiding losses for three years, while Santander is reported to be moving from AI experimentation to execution. Real Estate & Wealth Flows: Reuters reports luxury buyers are increasingly targeting Spain’s Madrid and Costa del Sol amid geopolitical uncertainty, pushing foreign share of home sales higher. Climate Risk: A Europe-wide heatwave is being linked to record temperatures and rising death toll concerns, with Spain among the hardest hit.

Crypto Regulation: Binance says it will stop serving EU customers after failing to secure a MiCA licence by 30 June, emailing users in Poland, Italy, Spain and France on how to withdraw funds as the 1 July deadline approaches. Housing Market: Solvia expects Spanish home prices to rise 5%–8% in 2026, with sales stabilising near 2025 levels as supply remains tight. Retail & Energy: Eroski will transfer its 40 gas stations to Petroprix by year-end, aiming for continuity amid shifts in mobility and energy habits. Banking/Markets: The Ibex 35 opens slightly lower (around -0.2%) as Middle East tensions weigh on sentiment; Arteche’s new shares start trading and Izertis secures €133.5m syndicated financing. Politics/Legal: Former PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero asks a court to void his corruption probe tied to the Plus Ultra bailout, arguing rights were violated. Corporate/Finance: Dubai Holding is reportedly considering an investment in data-centre builder Hscale as it expands in Europe. Global Risk: Scientists link Europe’s heatwave intensity to human-caused climate change.

Venezuela Disaster: Twin earthquakes (7.2 and 7.5) struck northern Venezuela within 39 seconds, killing at least 164 and injuring nearly 1,000 as rescue teams race through collapsed areas and fears grow of far higher casualties. Spain Politics & Regional Economy: In Cantabria’s debate on the state of the region, the PP’s Juan José Alonso defended the regional executive’s “responsible” management and rejected the opposition’s “apocalyptic” line, arguing the government is attracting investment and improving solvency. Spain Investment & Jobs: SETT (state-backed tech transformation investor) plans nearly €40m to back two Spanish production initiatives, aiming to generate hundreds of jobs across filming, studios and services. Banking/Markets Watch: Santander is reported to be considering up to 3,000 early retirements in Spain as it pushes an AI shift. Cyber & Crypto Risk: Polymarket says hackers stole about $3m from users after a compromised third-party vendor injected malicious code into its site; the firm says it will refund victims in full. Energy/Cost Pressure: Spain’s heatwave is pushing electricity prices higher, adding strain to already-rising bills.

Pension Anxiety in Spain: Funcas survey finds 68% of Spaniards fear pensions will become a serious burden for the economy, with 70% saying younger people will be hit hardest and 79% of workers doubting reforms will be enough. Pensions Policy Push: BME backs “auto-enrolment” for employment pension plans (Pillar II) to widen participation and protect adequacy as Spain ages. Banking & Risk Management: PIB Group appoints Fernando Franco as Head of Surety and Credit to strengthen financial protection and risk advice for companies. Healthcare Finance: French insurer Alan secures a €480m Series G round valuing it at €5.5bn, aiming to scale prevention insurance across markets including Spain. Housing Pressure Map: A new report highlights Spain’s rural vacancy problem, with 3.8m unused homes and many empty properties in small towns, while cities face a 750,000-home shortfall. Energy & Climate Costs: Spain’s heatwave is driving up electricity prices, adding strain on already rising bills. Property Retail Expansion: Costa del Sol’s El Ingenio shopping centre in Vélez-Málaga plans a €14m expansion adding 4,500 sqm and 14 new retail units. Global Shock: Venezuela’s twin earthquakes kill at least 164 and injure nearly 1,000, with La Guaira hardest hit.

Energy & Markets: Spain’s heatwave is pushing electricity prices sharply higher, with wholesale power breaking above €100/MWh and peak evening rates nearly doubling in days—adding pressure on already-rising household bills after VAT and special electricity taxes returned. Banking & Regulation: Wells Fargo says it has completed the Fed’s 2026 stress test (no capital impact; SCB stays at 2.5%) and plans an 11% dividend hike to $0.50/share. Tech & Finance: Qualcomm and Hugging Face expand their partnership to bring open, developer-driven AI from devices to cloud. Defense & Space (Spain): FOSSA Systems closes a €9.25m funding round to scale its sovereign LEO satellite constellation and SIGINT/IoT capabilities. Crime & Justice (Spain): Scotland gang boss Steven Lyons arrives in Spain after losing extradition bids, facing organised crime charges including an alleged murder. EU Policy: New EU rules would require installers to show customers the energy-efficiency label for air conditioning and other appliances to help cut bills during extreme heat.

Defence IPO Watch: KNDS says it will launch a major stock market flotation in Paris and Frankfurt within weeks, selling 20% of shares to institutions while France and Germany keep the rest—aimed at funding rapid expansion as Europe rearm. World Cup Finance & Policy: FIFA chief Gianni Infantino defends mandatory hydration breaks as “purely sporting,” after backlash that the pauses also create extra advertising moments. Energy Shock in Europe: The European Commission approved a EUR 212m fuel-aid plan for France’s agriculture and aquaculture after Strait of Hormuz disruptions pushed diesel costs up sharply. Spain Banking & Markets: The Bank of Spain is forecast to deliver 1.5bn euros in profits in 2026 after avoiding losses for three years. Private Equity in Spain: H.I.G. Capital appoints Carlos Couret as Managing Director and Head of Spain lower middle-market PE. Housing Pressure: Spain’s housing emergency remains front and centre, with coverage highlighting a 750,000-home shortfall and knock-on effects for renters and buyers. Heatwave Disruption: Record heat across Europe is driving school closures, power outages and health warnings, with Spain also affected.

Banking & Markets: Spain’s central bank is forecast to return to profits, with the Bank of Spain projecting €1.5bn for 2026 after years avoiding losses. Housing & Regulation: Spain’s antitrust push is targeting six banks over mortgage practices, while the Bank of Spain also backs limits on short-term lets to cool the housing crunch. Corporate Finance: Santander is moving from AI experiments to execution, and has rolled out AI tools across staff after reporting early value. Local Governance & Public Finance: The Spanish Federation of Municipalities and Provinces (FEMP) is pressing for local financing reform to tackle gaps tied to climate and housing pressures. Energy & Industry: Spain backs a €27.6m investment to expand the Escombreras basin in Cartagena, and Navantia is delivering Saudi corvettes on time and on budget. Tech & Cyber: A new WhatsApp phishing campaign is using fake business documents to enable remote access. Sports & Legal: A US court blocks a private equity firm from subpoenaing financial data tied to Spain’s national football team in an ICSID-related dispute.

ECB Watch: Philip Lane told the European Parliament inflation may stay above 2% “for quite some time,” citing wage momentum and broader price pressures, while markets still price another rate move before year-end. Banking & Tech: Banco Santander is rolling out AI tools across its workforce after reporting early value from its global AI push. Spain Housing & Regulation: Spain’s antitrust probe targets six banks over mortgage practices, while the Bank of Spain backs limits on short-term lets amid the housing crunch. Energy & Industry: Spain is set to approve a €719m AI “gigafactory” investment, and separate coverage highlights Spain’s push for energy sovereignty and hydrogen pilots. Digital Payments: The European Parliament is set to unblock the digital euro, outlining how the new electronic currency would work. Business & Cross-border: A Nepal–Spain business forum in Madrid focused on boosting Spanish investor links with Nepal’s private sector. Travel & Consumer Tech: Jet2 confirms a new “72-hour” app update for live flight status and resort support details. Markets: The Ibex 35 slips near 19,500 as crude retreats and global risk sentiment wobbles after US tech selling.

Banking & AI: Santander says it is rolling AI tools out to all 185,000 employees worldwide after €35m of business value in Q1, aiming for €1bn from 2026-28 and scaling 280+ process agents. Public Finance & Households: Spain’s June “summer extra payment” for pensioners lands between June 22-25 depending on bank (Bankinter/Unicaja June 22; Santander June 23; CaixaBank June 24; BBVA/Sabadell/Abanca June 25). Courts & Corruption: Spain’s Supreme Court sentences former transport minister José Luis Ábalos to 24 years and three months in the “Masks” COVID graft case, with a cap on actual time served. Cybersecurity: Kaspersky warns of a WhatsApp malware campaign targeting Spain and others, using fake debt notices to install remote access tools. Tech & Connectivity: Vodafone will provide communications for the proposed Morocco-Spain tunnel project, while Indra lands a US contract to equip Washington D.C. subway stations with new customer terminals. Business Climate: A barometer finds 70% of Italian firms expect higher revenue/investment in Spain in 2026.

Banking Markets: Santander overtook Inditex to become Spain’s most valuable listed company for the first time in eight years, with shares boosted by a rally in banking stocks and a strong profit backdrop. Corporate Tech & Energy: Iberdrola confirmed a €1.6bn R&D&I plan for 2025-2028 and says it has 300+ AI initiatives tied to electrification and grid resilience. Equity Research: European Equity Research Partners started coverage of Spanish XR firm Virtualware with a BUY rating and a €7.42 target, citing low-90s gross margins and ~30% 2026 revenue growth guidance. Business Expansion: Auren acquired Valencian consultancy Ifedes to strengthen strategic consulting, market development and organisational transformation. Travel & Consumer Services: Jet2 rolled out a new app feature letting passengers see live flight status and updates from 72 hours before departure, plus details for in-resort customer help. Geopolitics & Risk: EU security concerns are growing over China’s expanding investment in Spain’s port infrastructure, including projects near sensitive military sites. Markets Watch: The Ibex 35 held around 19,400 points mid-session as investors digested easing geopolitical tension and awaited central bank signals.

Heatwave Policy Shock: France moved parts of the country toward red heat alerts near 41C, restricting alcohol at public events and keeping parks open around the clock, while Spain also shut a World Cup fan zone in Madrid as conditions worsened. World Cup & Crypto Spillover: Spain’s 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia in Group H reignited betting and fan-token chatter, with Spain launching a $SPAIN fan token ahead of the match; prediction markets also recalibrated after the rout. Spain Sports Spotlight: Lamine Yamal’s return helped spark Spain’s turnaround, while attention is now on Uruguay vs Cape Verde as Group H’s top spot tightens. Libya Energy Dealflow: Libya reported its highest oil output in over a decade (about 1.49m bpd) and linked the jump to new production-sharing agreements that include Repsol, Eni and MOL. Spain Banking Watch: Spain’s largest banks launched a collaborative fraud platform, signaling tighter defenses as digital finance expands. Tech Sovereignty Debate: Europe’s AI leaders warned of “total technological irrelevance” without homegrown sovereign capabilities, echoing concerns raised at Vivatech.